Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.463159 9.969725 11.620899 13.558797 15.764502 18.190359 21.053470
2025-02-09 6.152994 8.194491 10.663471 13.840152 17.786839 22.494779 28.497894
2025-02-16 4.555270 6.764024 9.674292 13.720886 19.122616 25.997608 35.307647
2025-02-23 3.400780 5.580507 8.683508 13.302684 19.860307 28.672381 41.210728
2025-03-02 2.552684 4.605171 7.745607 12.720123 20.180342 30.692593 46.299548
2025-03-09 2.046398 4.023322 7.249513 12.645136 21.126589 33.565951 52.698401
2025-03-16 1.631440 3.489624 6.716808 12.399016 21.730661 35.928671 58.476481
2025-03-23 1.450093 3.327842 6.760492 13.061353 23.776354 40.556859 67.878640
2025-03-30 1.228680 3.036097 6.520557 13.194186 24.948973 43.895103 75.511333
2025-04-06 1.035006 2.753478 6.244587 13.212277 25.904693 46.926717 82.826298
2025-04-13 0.869517 2.490494 5.958189 13.161951 26.714569 49.749092 89.949754
2025-04-20 0.819230 2.481747 6.178872 14.090350 29.330100 55.722646 102.511090
2025-04-27 0.741186 2.393681 6.232869 14.724543 31.514199 61.194939 114.718273
2025-05-04 0.665279 2.293671 6.247665 15.286301 33.623255 66.698186 127.340393
2025-05-11 0.561489 2.088686 5.989658 15.246023 34.573665 70.223206 136.793610
2025-05-18 0.454413 1.839526 5.579516 14.818612 34.712500 72.283589 143.803805
2025-05-25 0.358027 1.588106 5.111404 14.189890 34.369083 73.411891 149.199939
2025-06-01 0.301005 1.446166 4.896819 14.111003 35.143512 76.661579 158.561803
2025-06-08 0.246955 1.293220 4.620167 13.841969 35.479198 79.079694 166.512105
2025-06-15 0.231056 1.281488 4.741959 14.569359 38.039676 85.960898 183.067158
2025-06-22 0.200883 1.199549 4.640611 14.715239 39.313176 90.362885 195.150659
2025-06-29 0.171950 1.110299 4.498575 14.735136 40.298512 94.237473 206.406381
2025-07-06 0.145729 1.020976 4.337101 14.679940 41.100890 97.778478 217.176593